Prediction Time

The talent and confidence exuded during spring training by Masahiro Tanaka was, at times, striking. He capped it Friday night with 10 strikeouts in a six-inning outing against the Marlins. To no one's surprise, yesterday, he was named the James P Dawson Award winner for 2014. Named for a fabled New York Times sportswriter, it's voted by the local media corps to the most impressive rookie in Yankees camp.
Such notable Yankees as Tony Kubek, Tom Tresh, Roy White, Willie Randolph, Don Mattingly and Jorge Posada have won it since the Dawson award was established in 1956. So did a first-year major leaguer named Hideki Matsui. But so have such forgotten flashes-in-the-pan as Johnny James, Gordon Windhorn, George Zeber, Mike Humphries and Eric Duncan.
And some years, February and March performance isn't a measure of future greatness. Note how such beloved Bronx names as Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, Bernie Williams, Mariano Rivera, Bobby Murcer, Thurman Munson and Mel Stottlemyre are absent.
So there's no guarantee that Mister March becomes Mister October or Mister November. But it's fun to watch a talented newcomer such as Tanaka tempt us as we get ready for the upcoming season.
And with that in mind, as the Dodgers and Padres get set to re-start the regular season tonight (after those two Dodgers/Diamondbacks in Australia), it's time for annual ritual: predictions.

AL Divisions: Yankees, Tigers, Angels. (Wild Cards) Rangers, Orioles
Playoffs: Tigers over Orioles; Yankees over Angels; Yankees over Tigers in the ALCS

 NL Divisions: Nationals, Cardinals, Dodgers (Wild Cards) Pirates, Marlins
Playoffs: Nationals over Marlins; Dodgers over Cardinals; Dodgers over Nationals in the NLCS

 WORLD SERIES: Yankees over Dodgers in 7. 

From what I saw of Tanaka in person and on TV, he appears to be a difference maker -- surrounded by talented free agents and older (and hopefully, healthy again) veterans, I like what the Yanks have put together. With Derek Jeter about to embark on the final lap of his fabulous career, Tanaka and his teammates have what it takes for the Captain to leave on top.

To come clean, here's what I saw in what was clearly a foggy crystal ball a year ago.

Click on "add a comment" and share yours. Enjoy the upcoming season. After the winter we endured here in the northeast, green grass and sunshine can't arrive quickly enough.

Comments

Steve Nadel said…
Somehow I knew you'd pick the Yankees. I think that is clearly the most intriguing division of the 6. Any of those teams could grab either the Division title or Wild Card spots. With that said, I'll go with the Rays, though barely over the other 4 teams.

Have you noticed that the almost every prediction in the NL is National, Cards, Dodgers. I'd like to see a little more competition in the senior circuit. All three AL divisions are up for grabs but I am going with your AL Central and West picks.

I don't disagree with your AL East just because it is the Yankees. I think they did a lot to improve a terrible club that somehow managed to win 85 games last year. I make that prediction because every one of their infielders have a big question mark over their heads. 2nd and 3rd totally unknown. Short and 1st coming off season long injuries.
March 31, 2014 at 10:18 AM
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